Lesson 03 · 3 min read
Reading the daily Bitcoin line
Every day at 06:00 UTC a line is drawn. Above or below is the whole question.
The daily question is simple: will the price be at or above a line at a fixed moment tomorrow morning? The line is set near where the price is now, so the market's number usually starts close to a coin flip.
Two things move it. The first is where the price actually is, minute to minute. The second is how much it tends to move in a day. A quiet market makes the line hard to cross. A wild one makes 'above' and 'below' nearly the same bet.
The trap is recency. Three green days in a row don't make a fourth more likely. Ask instead: how far is the line, and how far does the price usually travel overnight? If the line is farther than a typical night's move, the crowd's number should be well away from fifty.
This is the best question to practice on because it settles tomorrow, so you learn fast. Make the call, sleep, look at the receipt.
Try this
Compare the distance to the line with yesterday's high-to-low range. If the line sits outside that range, lean against the crossing.