Touch or not: 'ever' is a different word from 'at'

'At or above on October 1' asks where the price is at one moment. 'Touches by October 1' asks whether it gets there at any moment before then. The second one only needs one wild hour. That's why touch questions cost more.

A rough rule from options desks: the chance of touching a level before a date is about twice the chance of finishing beyond it. Not exactly, and the more time there is, the more that rule bends, but it's the right starting point.

So when you see a touch question, don't ask 'will it end up there'. Ask 'how many spikes could it take between now and then, and how big are spikes lately?' Volatility is the whole answer.

Touch questions also resolve early. Once the level is hit, the answer is known, even if the deadline is weeks away. A touch that already happened prices near 100.